Kazakhstan Population: Demographics & Trends

The population of Kazakhstan is approximately 20.2 million as of 2026, according to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan. Despite being the 9th largest country in the world by land area (2,724,900 km²), Kazakhstan is one of the most sparsely populated nations on Earth, with just 7.4 people per square kilometer.

This guide covers everything about the Kazakhstan population: historical growth, ethnic composition, city populations, age structure, migration trends, and projections through 2050, all backed by data from the World Bank, United Nations, and Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics.

Kazakhstan Population at a Glance (2026)

Before diving into the details, here is a snapshot of where Kazakhstan stands demographically. These figures draw on the World Bank World Development Indicators and the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics (stat.gov.kz).

Statistic	Value	Source
Total population	20.2 million (Jan 2025)	Bureau of National Statistics
Population density	7.4 per km²	World Bank
World rank by population	64th	UN Population Division
Annual growth rate	1.4%	World Bank (2023)
Urban population	60.1%	Bureau of National Statistics
Rural population	39.9%	Bureau of National Statistics
Median age	31.0 years	UN Population Division
Life expectancy	74.4 years	World Bank (2023)
Literacy rate	99.8%	UNESCO
Sex ratio	0.95 males per female	Bureau of National Statistics
Fertility rate (TFR)	3.13 children per woman	Bureau of National Statistics (2023)

To understand how sparse Kazakhstan really is, consider these population density comparisons:

Country	Area (km²)	Population	Density (per km²)
Kazakhstan	2,724,900	20.2M	7.4
Mongolia	1,564,116	3.4M	2.2
Australia	7,692,024	26.8M	3.5
Canada	9,984,670	40.4M	4.0
Russia	17,098,242	144.2M	8.4
Germany	357,022	84.5M	237
South Korea	100,210	51.7M	516

Kazakhstan is less dense than Russia, but far emptier than any European or East Asian country. If you want to understand where Kazakhstan is geographically and why it feels so vast, that context helps explain these numbers.

Historical Population Growth: From 1900 to 2025

Kazakhstan’s population history has been turbulent, shaped by famine, forced settlement, Soviet industrialization, mass deportations, nuclear testing, independence-era emigration, and a 21st-century baby boom.

Year	Population	Key Event
1900	~4.0 million	Nomadic Kazakh population under Russian Empire
1911	~5.0 million	Pre-WWI growth
1926	~6.2 million	First Soviet census
1932	~3.5–4.0 million	Asharshylyk famine — 1.5–2.3 million Kazakhs died (38% of the Kazakh population)
1939	~6.1 million	Partial recovery + Russian/Ukrainian settlers arrive
1959	~9.3 million	Virgin Lands campaign floods Kazakhstan with 1.5M settlers
1970	~13.0 million	Industrial migration continues
1979	~14.7 million	Steady Soviet-era growth
1989	~16.5 million	Soviet peak — Kazakhs are a minority (40%) in their own republic
1994	~16.0 million	Post-independence emigration begins
1999	~14.9 million	Post-Soviet low point — 2 million Russians and Germans emigrate
2009	~16.0 million	Recovery driven by Kazakh birth rate + Oralman returns
2019	~18.8 million	Steady 1.5% annual growth
2024	~20.0 million	Reached 20 million milestone
2025	~20.2 million	Current estimate

Sources: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics; UN World Population Prospects 2024; Demoscope Weekly.

The 1930s Famine (Asharshylyk)

The most catastrophic demographic event in Kazakhstan’s history was the Soviet-induced famine of 1930-1933, known in Kazakh as Asharshylyk. Forced collectivization and sedentarization of nomadic Kazakhs caused the death of an estimated 1.5 to 2.3 million ethnic Kazakhs, roughly 38% of the entire Kazakh population. Another 600,000–1 million Kazakhs fled to China, Mongolia, and other Soviet republics. The Kazakh population did not fully recover to its pre-famine level until the 1960s.

The 1990s Population Collapse

Kazakhstan’s population fell by 1.6 million people between 1989 and 1999, from 16.5 million to 14.9 million. Three forces drove this decline:

1. Mass emigration of Russians and Germans: Approximately 1.5–2 million ethnic Russians and 800,000 ethnic Germans left Kazakhstan for Russia and Germany respectively, responding to economic collapse and growing Kazakhization policies
2. Emigration of Ukrainians, Greeks, Jews, and other Soviet-era settlers for similar reasons
3. Economic crisis: The transition from a planned to market economy caused GDP to fall by 40%, devastating living standards and suppressing birth rates

Since 2000, Kazakhstan has recovered and surpassed its Soviet-era population peak, growing at a rate that surpasses most post-Soviet states. This growth is closely tied to the Kazakhstan economy, which expanded rapidly on the back of oil revenues from 2000 to 2015.

Ethnic Composition of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in Central Asia, a legacy of Soviet-era deportations, industrial migration, and the Virgin Lands campaign. The culture of Kazakhstan reflects this multi-ethnic reality, blending Kazakh, Russian, Uzbek, Uighur, Korean, and other traditions.

Ethnicity	% (2024)	Population	% at Independence (1989)	Change
Kazakhs	70.7%	~14.3M	40.1%	+30.6%
Russians	14.9%	~3.0M	37.4%	-22.5%
Uzbeks	3.3%	~670K	2.0%	+1.3%
Ukrainians	1.4%	~280K	5.4%	-4.0%
Uighurs	1.5%	~300K	1.1%	+0.4%
Tatars	1.1%	~220K	2.0%	-0.9%
Germans	0.9%	~180K	5.8%	-4.9%
Koreans	0.6%	~120K	0.6%	0.0%
Turks	0.5%	~100K	—	New
Other	5.1%	~1.0M	5.6%	-0.5%

Source: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, 2024 data; 1989 Soviet Census.

Why so diverse? The Soviet government used Kazakhstan as a dumping ground for “unreliable” peoples:

• 1937–1944 forced deportations: Koreans from the Soviet Far East (172,000), Volga Germans (444,000), Chechens, Ingush, Crimean Tatars, Meskhetian Turks, and Poles were forcibly relocated to Kazakhstan
• 1950s Virgin Lands campaign: Khrushchev sent 1.5 million Russian and Ukrainian settlers to farm the northern steppe
• Soviet industrial migration: Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians staffed mines, factories, and railroads across the republic

The Shrinking Russian Minority

The demographic shift of the Russian population in Kazakhstan is one of the most dramatic ethnic changes in post-Soviet history.

Year	Russian Population	% of Total	Cumulative Emigration
1989	~6.2 million	37.4%	—
1999	~4.5 million	30.0%	~1.7 million left
2009	~3.8 million	23.7%	~2.4 million left
2019	~3.5 million	18.4%	~2.7 million left
2024	~3.0 million	14.9%	~3.2 million left

At independence in 1991, ethnic Russians comprised 37.4% of Kazakhstan’s population, nearly equal to the Kazakh share of 40.1%. Kazakhstan was the only Soviet republic where the titular nationality was a minority. Today, Russians are just 14.9% and concentrated primarily in northern Kazakhstan (Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar oblasts) and in major cities in Kazakhstan like Almaty and Astana.

The Russian share continues to decline through emigration (accelerated after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine), lower Russian birth rates compared to Kazakhs, and the ongoing Oralman program that brings ethnic Kazakhs into the country.

Top 10 Cities by Population

Kazakhstan’s urban population is concentrated in a few major centers. The three largest cities alone hold nearly a quarter of the country’s total population.

Rank	City	Population (2024)	Region	Notable Feature
1	Almaty	2,300,000	Southeast	Financial capital, largest city
2	Astana	1,350,000	North-central	Political capital since 1997
3	Shymkent	1,200,000	South	Third city, industrial hub
4	Aktobe	550,000	West	Oil and gas center
5	Karaganda	510,000	Central	Soviet-era mining city
6	Taraz	450,000	South	Ancient Silk Road city
7	Semey	340,000	East	Near former nuclear test site
8	Pavlodar	340,000	Northeast	Industrial center
9	Oskemen	330,000	East	Metallurgy hub
10	Atyrau	280,000	West	Oil capital of Kazakhstan

Source: Bureau of National Statistics, akimat (city government) data, 2024.

Almaty dominates as Kazakhstan’s economic engine. Its metropolitan area, including suburban Almaty Oblast, houses roughly 4 million people, nearly 20% of the national population. The city’s population has grown by 50% since 2000, fueled by rural-to-urban migration from southern Kazakhstan.

Astana has been the fastest-growing city since it became the capital in 1997, when its population was just 300,000. It has grown more than fourfold in 27 years, largely through government relocation and construction-driven migration.

For a deeper look at each city’s character and what to expect, see our guide to cities in Kazakhstan.

Age Structure and the Youth Bulge

Kazakhstan has a relatively young population compared to Europe and East Asia, though it is aging faster than its Central Asian neighbors.

Age Group	Percentage	Population	Comparison (Germany)
0–14 years	27.4%	~5.5M	13.8%
15–24 years	13.2%	~2.7M	10.1%
25–54 years	39.8%	~8.0M	38.9%
55–64 years	10.4%	~2.1M	16.0%
65+ years	9.2%	~1.9M	21.2%

Source: UN Population Division, 2024 estimates.

Key demographic indicators:

• Birth rate: 21.5 per 1,000 (2023), well above replacement level and the highest in Central Asia outside Tajikistan
• Death rate: 7.8 per 1,000 (2023)
• Natural growth rate: 13.7 per 1,000 (1.37% annually)
• Total fertility rate (TFR): 3.13 children per woman (2023), up from 2.5 in 2015, partly due to government pro-natalist policies

Kazakhstan’s population pyramid is expansive at the base, meaning more children and young adults than elderly. This youth bulge is strongest in southern oblasts (Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Zhambyl), where ethnic Kazakh families average 3–4 children, and weakest in northern oblasts with aging Russian-majority populations.

The ethnic Kazakh birth rate is significantly higher than the Russian birth rate within Kazakhstan, which is the primary driver of the increasing Kazakh share of the population, even without factoring in emigration.

Population Distribution: Empty North, Dense South

Kazakhstan’s population distribution is extremely uneven. The question of whether Kazakhstan is in Europe or Asia matters here because the northern, sparsely populated steppe feels geographically European, while the dense, rapidly growing south is unmistakably Central Asian.

Densely Populated Regions

Region	Population	Density (per km²)	Character
Almaty city	2.3M	2,929	Megacity
Turkestan Oblast	2.1M	13.5	Rural, fast-growing, youngest
Almaty Oblast	2.1M	13.2	Suburban + agricultural
Shymkent city	1.2M	1,500+	Dense urban
Astana city	1.35M	1,680	Capital, fast-growing
Zhambyl Oblast	1.1M	7.8	Agricultural south

Sparsely Populated Regions

Region	Population	Density (per km²)	Character
Ulytau Oblast	~220K	0.6	Steppe, emptiest region
Mangystau Oblast	~760K	4.6	Desert/oil, Caspian coast
Karaganda Oblast	~1.35M	3.5	Vast central steppe
Kostanay Oblast	~840K	4.0	Northern agricultural steppe
Aktobe Oblast	~920K	3.0	Western steppe

The central Kazakh steppe, the heartland of the country, has population densities of 0.5 to 2 people per km², comparable to Mongolia or the Australian Outback. You can drive for hours on the highway between Astana and Karaganda and see nothing but grassland and sky.

Education and Human Capital

Soviet-era investment gave Kazakhstan a strong educational foundation that persists today. The literacy rate of 99.8% is among the highest in the world, according to UNESCO.

Key education statistics (Bureau of National Statistics, 2023):

• Higher education enrollment: 620,000+ students across 120+ universities
• Tertiary attainment (age 25–64): 41%, higher than the OECD average of 40%
• Languages of instruction: Kazakh (64% of students), Russian (32%), English (4%)
• Government education spending: 4.5% of GDP (World Bank, 2022)

Major educational initiatives:

• Nazarbayev University (Astana, founded 2010): Fully English-medium with international faculty from MIT, Cambridge, and other top universities. Produces Kazakhstan’s tech and policy elite
• Bolashak Scholarship Program: Since 1993, over 13,000 Kazakhstanis have studied at top universities abroad (UK, US, Germany, Japan) on government scholarships, with mandatory return-to-work requirements
• Trilingual education policy: Since 2016, Kazakhstan has been transitioning schools to teach in Kazakh, Russian, and English, an ambitious but controversial reform

The education system is one reason Kazakhstan scores higher on the Human Development Index (0.811, “very high”) than any other Central Asian country. For context, this places Kazakhstan between Mexico and Serbia on the UN’s HDI ranking.

Migration Trends: Emigration, Oralman, and the 2022 Russian Influx

Migration is one of the most dynamic forces shaping Kazakhstan’s population. Three overlapping trends define the current picture.

Ongoing Emigration

Kazakhstan experiences a steady outflow of skilled workers and young professionals. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, approximately 32,000 people emigrated permanently in 2023. Primary destinations:

• Russia: Ethnic Russians returning or relocating (~60% of emigrants)
• Germany: Ethnic Germans using Spätaussiedler (late repatriate) status
• Canada, South Korea, US: Increasingly popular among young Kazakhstanis
• Turkey: Growing student and professional migration

The Oralman (Ethnic Kazakh Repatriation) Program

Since 1991, Kazakhstan has encouraged ethnic Kazakhs living abroad to “return” to their ancestral homeland. These returnees are called Oralman (Kazakh: “returnees”). The program offers:

• Free land and housing subsidies
• Cash payments (a lump sum of approximately $700–1,500 per person)
• Simplified citizenship process

Oralman arrivals by source country:

Source Country	Approximate Total (1991–2024)	Notes
Uzbekistan	~400,000	Largest source
China (Xinjiang)	~250,000	Kazakh diaspora in western China
Mongolia	~120,000	Bayan-Ölgii Kazakhs
Turkmenistan	~80,000	—
Russia	~70,000	—
Other	~80,000	Tajikistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey
Total	~1,000,000+	—

Source: Kazakhstan Ministry of Labor and Social Protection; Committee on Migration.

The Oralman program has been strategically significant: it has helped increase the Kazakh share of the population and partially offset the emigration of Russians and Germans.

The Post-2022 Russian Influx

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and subsequent mobilization in September 2022 triggered a massive wave of Russian relocation to Kazakhstan. Estimates vary:

• Initial influx (2022): 200,000–400,000 Russians entered Kazakhstan
• Stayed long-term (2023–2024): Estimated 50,000–100,000 remain
• Profile: Predominantly young, tech-sector, well-educated males aged 20–40
• Impact cities: Almaty (primary destination), Astana, Kostanay

This influx boosted rental housing demand (Almaty rents rose 30-50% in 2022-2023), increased the customer base for IT services, and complicated Kazakhstan’s diplomatic balancing act between Russia and the West. Many Russians have since moved on to Georgia, Turkey, or returned to Russia.

Nuclear Testing and the Semipalatinsk Health Legacy

No discussion of Kazakhstan’s population is complete without addressing the Semipalatinsk Test Site (known as “The Polygon”), where the Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests from 1949 to 1989, including 116 atmospheric detonations.

Key facts:

• Location: Near the city of Semey (formerly Semipalatinsk), East Kazakhstan
• Affected population: An estimated 1.5 million people were exposed to radioactive fallout (Kazakh Institute of Radiation Medicine)
• Health impacts: Elevated rates of cancer (especially thyroid, lung, stomach), cardiovascular disease, birth defects, immune deficiencies, and mental health disorders in surrounding communities
• Area contaminated: ~18,500 km², roughly the size of Kuwait
• Test site closure: February 29, 1991, one of the first acts of Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, championed by the anti-nuclear Nevada-Semipalatinsk movement

The city of Semey (population 340,000) and surrounding villages continue to report health effects into the third generation. Kazakhstan’s government provides special health benefits and early retirement to registered “nuclear test victims,” though critics say support remains inadequate.

This nuclear legacy was a major reason Kazakhstan voluntarily gave up the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal after independence, the largest voluntary nuclear disarmament in history.

Population Projections to 2050

The United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 revision) projects Kazakhstan’s population trajectory as follows:

Year	Projected Population	Growth Rate	Median Age
2025	20.2 million	1.4%	31.0
2030	21.8 million	1.2%	31.9
2035	23.3 million	1.1%	32.8
2040	24.6 million	0.9%	33.8
2045	25.7 million	0.7%	35.0
2050	26.5 million	0.5%	36.3

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant.

Key projections:

• Kazakhstan’s population is expected to reach 26.5 million by 2050, a 31% increase from today
• Growth will slow gradually as urbanization increases and fertility declines
• The median age will rise from 31 to 36, still young by European standards (Germany: 47 in 2050)
• The Kazakh ethnic share is projected to exceed 80% by 2050, as the Russian minority continues to age and emigrate
• Urbanization will reach 70%+ as rural Kazakhstanis continue migrating to Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent

Challenges Ahead

• Aging northern regions: North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and Pavlodar oblasts face depopulation as young people move south
• Water scarcity: Population growth in the south is straining water resources, particularly the Syr Darya basin
• Housing pressure: Almaty and Astana face housing shortages and affordability crises
• Brain drain: Despite the Bolashak program, many of Kazakhstan’s best-educated young people emigrate permanently

Despite these challenges, Kazakhstan’s demographic outlook is far more favorable than most post-Soviet states. Russia, Ukraine, and the Baltic states face population decline; Kazakhstan is one of the few post-Soviet countries with sustained, healthy population growth.

How Kazakhstan’s Population Compares to Neighbors

For regional context, here is how Kazakhstan stacks up against its Central Asian neighbors and key comparator countries:

Country	Population (2025)	Growth Rate	Median Age	Density (per km²)
Kazakhstan	20.2M	1.4%	31.0	7.4
Uzbekistan	36.4M	1.5%	28.7	86
Tajikistan	10.3M	2.0%	23.5	72
Kyrgyzstan	7.2M	1.6%	27.0	36
Turkmenistan	6.5M	1.3%	28.3	13
Russia	144.2M	-0.3%	39.6	8.4
Mongolia	3.4M	1.3%	28.8	2.2

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024.

Kazakhstan has the highest GDP per capita of any Central Asian country ($13,500 nominal, World Bank 2023) and the highest Human Development Index (0.811), which partly explains why it attracts labor migrants from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan rather than losing workers like its poorer neighbors.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the population of Kazakhstan in 2026?

Kazakhstan's population is approximately 20.2 million as of January 2026, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. It is the 64th most populous country in the world and one of the least densely populated at just 7.4 people per km², despite being the 9th largest country by land area. Most of the population lives in Almaty (2.3M), Astana (1.35M), and Shymkent (1.2M).

What percentage of Kazakhstan is ethnically Kazakh?

Approximately 70.7% of Kazakhstan's population are ethnic Kazakhs (~14.3 million people) as of 2024. At independence in 1991, Kazakhs were only 40% of the population — a minority in their own republic. The share has grown through higher Kazakh birth rates, emigration of 3+ million Russians and Germans, and the Oralman repatriation program that has brought about 1 million ethnic Kazakhs from abroad.

How many Russians live in Kazakhstan?

Approximately 3 million ethnic Russians live in Kazakhstan as of 2024 — about 14.9% of the population. At independence in 1989, Russians were 37.4% (6.2 million). Since then, roughly 3.2 million Russians have emigrated, primarily to Russia. Russians are concentrated in northern Kazakhstan (Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar oblasts) and in major cities like Almaty and Astana.

Is Kazakhstan's population growing or shrinking?

Kazakhstan's population is growing at about 1.4% per year — one of the highest rates in the post-Soviet world. After declining from 16.5M (1989) to 14.9M (1999) due to mass emigration, Kazakhstan has grown steadily to 20.2M in 2026. The UN projects it will reach 26.5 million by 2050. Growth is driven by a high birth rate of 21.5 per 1,000 and the Oralman repatriation program.

What is the population density of Kazakhstan?

Kazakhstan's population density is just 7.4 people per square kilometer — one of the lowest in the world. For comparison, Germany has 237 per km² and South Korea has 516 per km². The southern regions around Almaty and Shymkent are relatively dense, while the central steppe has densities of 0.5–2 per km², comparable to Mongolia or the Australian Outback.

What will Kazakhstan's population be in 2050?

According to the UN World Population Prospects (2024 revision, medium variant), Kazakhstan's population is projected to reach 26.5 million by 2050 — a 31% increase from today. Growth will slow from 1.4% annually to about 0.5% as urbanization increases and fertility gradually declines. The median age will rise from 31 to 36, and ethnic Kazakhs are projected to exceed 80% of the population.